“Big Filter”: Intelligence, Analytics and why all the hype about Big Data is focused on the wrong thing

These days, it seems like the tech set, the VC set, Wall Street and even the government can’t shut up about “Big Data”.  An almost meaningless buzzword, “Big Data” is the catch-all used to try and capture the notion of the truly incomprehensible volumes of information now being generated by everything from social media users – half a billion Tweets, a billion Facebook activities, 8 years of video uploaded to youtube… per day?! – to Internet-connected sensors of endless types, from seismography to traffic cams.   (As an aside, for many more, often mind-blowing, statistics on the relatively minor portion of data generation that is accounted for by humans and social media, check out these two treasure troves of statistics on Cara Pring’s “Social Skinny” blog.)

http://thesocialskinny.com/216-social-media-and-internet-statistics-september-2012/

http://thesocialskinny.com/100-more-social-media-statistics-for-2012/

In my work (and occasionally by baffled relatives) I am now fairly regularly asked “so, what’s all this ‘big data’ stuff about?”  I actually think this is the wrong question.

The idea that there would be lots and lots of machines generating lots and lots… and lots… of data was foreseen long before we mere mortals thought about it.  I mean, the dork set was worrying about  IPv4 Address exhaustion in the late 1980s.  This is when AOL dial-up was still marketed as “Quantum Internet Services” and made money by helping people connect their Commodore64’s to the Internet.  Seriously – while most of us were still saying “what’s a Internet?” and the nerdy kids at school were going crazy because, in roughly 4 hours, you could download and view the equivalent of a single page of Playboy, there were people already losing sleep over the notion then that the Internet was going to run out of it’s roughly four-and-half billion IP addresses.   My point is, you didn’t have to be Ray Kurzweil to see there would be more and more machines generating more and more data.

What I think is important is that more and more data serves no purpose without a way to make sense of it.  Otherwise, more data just adds to the problem of “we have all this data, and no usable information.” Despite all the sound and fury lately about Edward Snowden and NSA, including my own somewhat bemused comments on the topic, the seemingly omnipotent NSA is actually both the textbook example and the textbook victim of this problem.

It seems fairly well understood now that they collect truly ungodly amounts of data.  But they still struggle to make sense of it.  Our government excels at building ever more vast, capable and expensive collection systems.  Which only accentuates what I call the “September 12th problem.”  (Just Google “NSA, FBI al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi” if you want to learn more.)  We had all the data we ever needed to catch these guys.  We just couldn’t see it in the zetabytes of other data with which it was mixed.  On September twelfth it was “obvious” we should have caught these guys, and Congress predictably (and in my opinion unfairly) took the spook set out to the woodshed perched on the high horse of hindsight.

What they failed to acknowledge was that the fact we had collected the necessary data was irrelevant.  NSA collects so much data they have to build their new processing and storage facilities in the desert because there isn’t enough space or power left in the state of Maryland to support it.  (A million square feet of space, 65 megawatts of power consumption, nearly two million gallons of water a day just to keep the machines cool?  That is BIG data my friends.)  And yet, what is (at least in the circles I run in) one of the most poignant bits of apocrypha about the senior intelligence official’s lament?  “Don’t give me another bit, give me another analyst.”

It is this problem that has made “data scientist” the hottest job title in the universe, and made the founders of Splunk, Palantir and a host of other analytical tool companies a great deal of money.  In the end, I believe we need to focus not just on rule-based systems, or cool visualizations, or fancy algorithms from Isreali and Russian Ph.Ds.  We have to focus on technologies that can encapsulate how people, people who know what they’re doing on a given topic, can inform those systems to scale up to the volumes of data we now have to deal with.  We need to teach the machines to think like us, at least about the specific problem at hand.  Full disclosure, working on exactly this kind of technology is what I do in my day job, but just because my view is parochial doesn’t make it wrong.  The need for human-like processing of data based on expertise, not just rules, was poignantly illustrated by Malcolm Gladwell’s classic piece on mysteries and puzzles.

The upshot of that fascinating post (do read it, it’s outstanding) was in part this.  Jeffrey Skilling, the now-imprisoned CEO of Enron, proclaimed to the end he was innocent of lying to investors. I’m not a lawyer, and certainly the company did things I think were horrible, unethical, financially outrageous and predictably self-destructive, but that last is the point.  They were predictably self-destructive, predictable because, whatever else, Enron didn’t, despite reports to the contrary, hide the evidence of what they were doing. As Gladwell explains in his closing shot, for the exceedingly rare few willing to wade through hundreds or thousands of pages of incomprehensible Wall Street speak, all the signs, if not the out-and-out evidence, that Enron was a house of cards, were there for anyone to see.

Jonathan Weil of the Wall Street Journal wrote the September, 2000 article that got the proverbial rock rolling down the mountain, but long before that, a group of Cornell MBA students sliced and diced Enron as a school project and found it was a disaster waiting to happen.  Not the titans of Wall Street, six B-school students with a full course load. (If you’re really interested, you can still find the paper online 15 years later.)    My point is this – the data were all there. In a world awash in “Big Data”, collection of information will have ever-declining value.  Cutting through the noise, filtering it all down to which bits of it matter to your topic of choice; from earthquake sensors to diabetes data to intelligence on terrorist cells, that will be where the value, the need and the benefits to the world will lie. 

Screw “Big Data”, I want to be in the “Big Filter” business.

Mad Magazine, the NSA and Chinese Army Hackers

A quick follow up to yesterday’s post, continuing the “Jeez, you just can’t keep a good secret anymore” meme for the week.  If you follow politics or business news you may have seen lots (and lots and lots) of headlines lately regarding US economic losses, political wrangling and business executives’ hand-wringing over enormous, far-reaching and, by all accounts, incredibly effective Chinese hacking and cyber penetration of American companies, research labs and government agencies.  (Reading like a list of B-grade spy movies, feel free to read about “Operation Shady Rat” or “Byzantine Foothold” for some eye-opening facts and figures if this stuff isn’t your normal beat.)

 

Recently, there was great sturm und drang after the folks over at Mandiant produced a very detailed and revealing public report about just how big, bad, widespread and effective these efforts have been (which wasn’t entirely news to those in the know), and much more interestingly, great specifics on how it was done, and by whom, (which was).

 

A division of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army known by the not-entirely-inspirational moniker of “PLA Unit 61398” has since been the topic of much discussion in the press, the government and the security community.  (Not that a sexy moniker is all that important I suppose.  I hear it’s a great place to work with great benefits.  You can read one of their recruiting notices here if you’d like – see aforementioned “Jeez, can’t anybody keep a secret anymore?” discussion.)

 

Not to be outdone, (and in a piece that made me feel a bit like I was seeing a media version of the old Spy vs. Spy cartoons) FP just published a story headlined “Inside the NSA’s Ultra-Secret China Hacking Group”.  When the article includes a description of the inside of the building and the door into the room housing said “Ultra-Secret” unit, I’m pretty sure the folks who work there had a pretty significant hand in un-secreting it.

 

Still, given that the Chinese have long said they have their own mountains of data that we’ve been doing the same to them, perhaps this was just a timely PR use of information that, like Unit 61398, was about to enter the public conversation anyway.  The more I think about it, the more resonant that old cartoon strip seems.  They do it to us.  We do it to them.  Both sides know it, and the game goes on.  My guess is that what is a little bit different now is that both sides have to learn to play a game of shadows on a field that’s far more brightly lit than ever before.

Big Ears, Little Ears: One article, three layers of blown secrecy, and how Edward Snowden proves my point

Well, I haven’t had much time to write here for quite a while, but the Edward Snowden affair – and more specifically this piece in the Guardian – were such a terrific display of the Digital Water concept and “a world awash in data” that I couldn’t resist, despite my current schedule.  This story is kind of a delicious “triple play” on the concept.

I suppose before I dive in I should probably comment on using the word “delicious” in this context since I know there is an awful lot of outrage and shock on all sides of this debate.  Some are appalled by Snowden’s revelations, i.e. the supposed extent of the NSA’s electronic eavesdropping on everyone and everything including American citizens.  Others are appalled by Snowden’s actions and consider it nothing short of capital treason.  Those two viewpoints need not even be fundamentally in conflict – I’m sure there are folks out there who are both appalled by the NSA’s supposed activities and would like to see Snowden executed for treason.

I confess that, on the first point – the extent of the data collection and the agency’s capabilities – I myself am relatively unfazed. I’ve been in the Open Source Intelligence business for almost 15 years.  Given the shock many people express at what I could find out about them with nothing but a laptop at a Starbucks, I just can’t be wowed by what must be possible for a huge entity with a mania for secrecy, almost no oversight and an 11-digit budget.  The Echelon, or “Big Ear” controversy of the late 1990s(!) outed many of these supposed capabilities, and anyone who has even flipped through a James Bamford book would probably be slightly less bewildered at the ability (though perhaps not at the willingness) of NSA to do the things alleged. Anyway, wherever you stand on the particulars of the Snowden case, this article in the Guardian (which originally broke the story in an earlier piece) illustrates exactly the kind of world I have been trying to noodle over with this blog.  Here’s the “can’t anybody keep a secret any more?!” meme hat trick for this one little Web page.  Ready….

1. The NSA – The most obvious.  If you take him at his word, “The NSA has built an infrastructure that allows it to intercept almost everything. With this capability, the vast majority of human communications are automatically ingested without targeting. If I wanted to see your emails or your wife’s phone, all I have to do is use intercepts. I can get your emails, passwords, phone records, credit cards… The extent of their capabilities is horrifying.”  While we can argue the legal and moral issues, as a technological matter, this hardly should be a shocker given that we live in a world where your department store can tell when you’re pregnant (even if your parents can’t yet).   So – Level 1: John Q. Public can’t really keep a secret in the digital world.  Almost anything you say, send or type outside a locked, airtight room can be captured, analyzed and recorded if someone deems you interesting enough. 

2. Edward Snowden – So the NSA is, by its very nature, ultra-secretive, institutionally paranoid and famously tight lipped (Jim Bamford’s books notwithstanding). Yet every organization is made up of people, and like any group of the NSA’s estimated 40,000 employees, they will hold a diversity of views.  Now by all accounts to date, Snowden was a patriotic, smart kid who joined the Army Reserve and worked for the CIA.  He obviously had been scrutinized, checked out and picked apart.  You don’t get to play inside The Puzzle Palace if you’re an anti-government radical.  Yet what Snowden saw working as an NSA contractor motivated him to leak, speak, and flee the country.  Level 2?  For all the supposedly terrifying ability to spy that Snowden witnessed, one insider with a moral objection meant they couldn’t keep their secrets secret either.

3. The guys at the airport – My absolute favorite (and why I found this page so delicious).  So in this sometimes-bizarre corner of the world here inside the DC beltway, it is not at all uncommon for lots of people with plastic ID badges on lanyards to be overheard talking about the sorts of things that, in most of the country, would seem at home only in a Tom Clancy novel.  You can walk through certain shopping mall food courts at lunch  and hear phrases like “I’m cleared up the wazoo – TS-SCI with lifestyle poly plus some special stuff” or “sure, anybody can read a license plate from outer space, but we can do it at night!”.

Like cars in Lansing or Dearborn, surveillance and Intelligence and secret-squirrel military programs are just kind of the local business, and this is a factory town.  A lot of people here take this stuff veeeery seriously.  So it is not entirely remarkable when the guys at the bottom of the page opine that Snowden, that dirty, rotten, no-good treasonous so-and-so ought to be “disappeared”.  The part I love so much was the extreme low-tech surveillance system that outed their conversation.  They said it out loud and in public, and a “Little Ear” (you know, the biological one attached to the guy sitting across from them) in the airport captured it.  He then used a few hundred bucks worth of smartphone to record part of the conversation and Tweeted about it to the whole world.

So-   Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?   Apparently any employee with a conscience or every jackass with a cell phone.  I think that’s probably reassuring, but I have to think some more about it.  The world really is full of dangerous people who hate us.  Meanwhile – my own personal take on the Snowden thing?  (I’m speaking technologically here, I leave the constitutional and legal questions for others to debate.)  IF you matter enough to someone, there are no secrets.  Most of us just enjoy security through obscurity.  The only reason our privacy is safe for most of us is we’re utterly uninteresting.  You may not like it, but information and technology are inextricably linked.  The capability to do what NSA does can’t be uninvented.  We can do it… so can other countries. We can only decide as a society whether we can strike the appropriate balance between protecting ourselves from those without and those within.

Social Media for Trade Sanction Enforcement?

So here’s a novel twist on Open Source Intelligence and using Social Media for good?  I read these articles and was kind of intrigued:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-iran-ships-off-radar-tehran-conceals-oil-132350134.html

http://rt.com/news/iran-oil-tanker-tracking-system-018/

So, in response to international sanctions, the Iranians have told their national fleet of tankers (NITC) to turn off their transponders so no one can see where the oil is going.  Then they offer terms so favorable that buyers in China, India and the like are just too enticed to turn it down.  And the Western powers trying to cut off Iran’s oil revenues don’t know where all the oil is going.

So, as a pilot, I know a couple of things about turning off your transponder.

  1. It doesn’t make your plane invisible.
  2. It doesn’t make your plane invisible to radar, just makes you unidentified.
  3. Your plane still has to land somewhere.

I’m pretty sure the same is true for a ship that tips the scales at a quarter million deadweight tons, except for one other thing… there ain’t that many airports to choose from.  I don’t know the numbers, but the model’s pretty simple right?

So given the finite number of places that can offload an oil tanker, (100 in the world? 500?) And given that a chunk of those (half? less? more?) are in countries that are actively engaged in the sanctions and thus unlikely landing places, it would seem to me that the “free workforce” of camera-phone armed citizens could swing into action here.  How tough is it to spot a ship that runs a thousand feet from tip to tail, given it can only dock in one of a very small number of places?  I know some of the offload stations are offshore, but people on boats have cameras too right?

Whether social activists, ship-spotting hobbyists, or just people who think it might be fun to stick one to the social-media-crackdown-ing regime in Tehran, I would think that a viral campaign to engage users in those few hundred locations might trigger the occassional flickr upload or TwitPic, no?

OK, so I’m not sure about penetration of social media rates, mobile web access, and so on in some of those countries, and like I said, I know the larger ones may offload at an offshore pump station, but the beauty of the “Digital Water” model, where nearly every person and mobile device can become a sensor and witness, is that it literally only takes one person to provide a concrete update.  I mean, an ostracized regime goes to great pain and expense to maintain the flow of billions that keep them in power, and any yahoo with a camera phone can strike a blow for democracy  with a five-second upload? And the pic is probably geotagged and timestamped to boot? How awesome is that?!

Now if only there were some public source of information anyone could access where one could find the names and descriptions of the ships to be looking out for… hmmmmm…

http://www.nitc-tankers.com/fleet.html

http://shipspotting.com/

etc.

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this blog are mine alone, and do not represent the views, policies or positions of Cyveillance, Inc. or its parent, QinetiQ-North America.  I speak here only for myself and no postings made on this blog should be interpreted as communications by, for or on behalf of, Cyveillance (though I may occasionally plug the extremely cool work we do and the fascinating, if occasionally frightening, research we openly publish.)

 

 

 

Why Google is great, but not a complete solution, for Intel and Law Enforcement. (Part I)

I read Nick Selby’s piece on Police Led Intelligence this morning talking about more effective use of online search engines for police officers. Nick’s right – many in the Law Enforcement and Intelligence communities can do even more than they are by learning more about how search engines work, but there’s a second part to that story.

This has been on my mind a lot, especially since my company was acquired by a defense firm and I’ve been spending a lot more time with intelligence, law enforcement and other folks working in public health or safety.

Let me preface this by saying I’m not knocking the traditional search portals, they are extremely useful and powerful.

However, they do suffer from built-in biases, blind spots and restrictions that many analysts and law enforcement officers aren’t even aware are affecting them when they use a search engine.

By all means, use these fantastic tools to the fullest possible extent (see Nick’s comments and links to Google-hacking Jedi Master Johnny Long’s book and presentation).

Just understand that what they offer is not search of “the Internet” or “The Web”, they offer search of that portion of the online content world that is in their index, and then give you an even smaller slice of that.

With Johnny’s expansive help, and perhaps one or two easy tricks from yours truly, you can get to a decent portion of whatever they have. Just understand that what they have, what you can get to of what they have, and what they don’t have at all, is an important part of using them effectively.

The first three problems with traditional search engines

There is a wide range of built in biases, problems and blind spots with the traditional search engines of the world, and understanding them will make you a better user and consumer of the great things they CAN do for you.

Problem 1 – They only find things that don’t mind being found

Whether it’s a full Web site, a specific user’s blog on WordPress or a subset of pages within a much larger set of content, it is usually a 10-second exercise to hide content from search engines.

Search engines harvest pages by “crawling”, that is downloading a page from an address (i.e. a full path URL, e.g. http://host.domain.com/page.html), finding links on the page and “crawling” or following the link by requesting the linked page, finding more links on that page and sequentially requesting and indexing those pages ad infinitum.

The problem? On arrival at a site, the first page a crawler or spider will often request is called “robots.txt”, which essentially says “If you are an automated requester, i.e. not a person, please follow these links or help yourself to these pages, or all pages, or the entire domain” or whatever they want. To permanently say “Google, Yahoo et al, you are not welcome to see anything on my entire Web site” requires the extremely sophisticated programming below:

User-agent: * Disallow: /

In people speak, this says, “If you’re a robot (crawler, spider, automated agent etc.) not a human’s browser program, screw off.”

That’s it. Terrorists, child pornographers, anti-government radical or hate groups who want to hide from easy detection need less than 25 characters to ensure that an FBI or ATF agent can Google ’til the second coming, and their Web site will never show up in a traditional search engine.

On pre-built blogging platforms like WordPress, where the user is assumed to have NO technical or programming knowledge at all, it’s even easier. You check a box when you sign up that says “Do you want your posts to show up in search engines?” Check No, and you’re hidden from GoogleBot and its Bing-y, Yahoo!-y etc. cousins.

Yay for stupid criminals who don’t know this, and by all means let’s use Johnny-Fu to find what IS in those search engines’ indexes. Just understand that what Google or Bing has and what’s actually out there are not synonymous.

Problem 2 – We have nine BILLION results for your query…

“…but we’ll only show you 658 of them.”

Here’s another little-known and ill-understood factoid/problem (By the way, to make this problem easy to see, I recommend you go to preferences or settings on Google and set your account to “show 100 answers per page).

Type a query into Google that might have lots of results, e.g. Osama Bin Laden. Google will say something insane like “We have 44 million results for your query.”

Great. Insane as it sounds, suppose I had a room full of analysts and I actually wanted them to spend the next five years eyeballing every one of those results. Go to the bottom of the page where you see all the “O’s” in Goooooogle representing the next ten pages of results (at 100 per page). Click next three or four times….

Did you see ten pages of “next” shrink to 9 or 8 or 7? Click it some more. Without fail, around page 7 or 8, they cut you off. So Google has 44 million pages about Bin Laden. You can actually have about 658 of them.

Try it.

Problem 3 – Here are those 658 results….

Here’s the third of today’s often-unknown problems with search engines. By the way, there are six or seven more, but I’m already getting long-winded here.

The brilliant original insight that made Google a zillion-dollar success was a notion called PageRank (actually named for Larry Page, one of its four authors, and not for “Web Page” as many people think).

PageRank essentially codifies the notion of Vox Populi Vox Dei. See, Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine if you feel like seeing where 100 Billion Dollars started.

Let me save you reading a Stanford PhDs worth of math in seven words:

“That which is most popular is best.”

Google, not you, decides which 658 of the 44,000,000 results you get, and it does so by ranking them using today’s version of PageRank.

PageRank, for all of its enormous evolution and complexity since the mid-90s, still says basically, the most popular answer is the best answer.

If you are looking for who actually has those Paparrazi-snapped photos of Britney Spears in a bikini, you can be pretty sure that the page with the best, highest resolution versions of those pics will have the most inbound links, comments etc.

If what you’re looking for is likely to be unloved, unpopular, private or hidden in a dark digital corner of the Web, you’d best hope it has some extremely unusual or deterministic keyword in it if you want it to appear in the top slice of results for your query.

So to recap:

  1. There’s a lot of stuff that isn’t in Google or Yahoo and they’re easy to hide from.
  2. The stuff that is in there is only accessible up to about the 700th result.
  3. The 700 that are both actually in Google and in the top 700 you get to see are chosen by popularity. This is a terrible prioritization scheme if what you are looking for or care about is not likely to be, or meant to be, found or popular.

Well, that all kind of sucks. So what can I do about it?

The first of these is the hardest to address and (sorry) really needs to be the subject of another post.

As for the second two, which are related, there are some good things you can do to get the best of what is in the index to be found. Here, in no particular order are my favorite three things:

1. Read the works from Obi Wan Kenobi (Johnny Long) on Google Hacking. I am but a Padawan apprentice and a poor one at that. If you need the distilled version, start with his Black Hat presentation, especially page 5.

2. Define the weirdest query you can. What I mean is, if Google has a zillion results and you can only have 600 of them, or if they have 600 and you want to read 20, not all of them, do not ask the most generic version of your question.

Let’s go back to the Bin Laden example (yes I know he’s dead, but for years it was all any govvie I talked to wanted to use as their example.)

If you had, a few months ago, typed in “Bin Laden whereabouts” or “Bin Laden location” you’d get millions of results. Here’s the crazy thing: While I don’t think it’s likely, is it possible, based on Problems #2 and #3 that there actually WAS a page saying “Hey, I heard a rumor OBL is living in Abottabad. Anyone snooped around that big new house they built there yet?” Yep.

If that page/author/blog was, in the godlike wisdom of PageRank, considered an unpopular crank and therefore placed in just, say, position 902 out of five million results, you’d NEVER see it, even though it was sitting in there for years. Why? Results cut off at 856.

However, if the assumption was, “Well, the guy’s getting messages out somehow, and living someplace, probably pretty secure” then you have a much better way to query. How about this:

Bin Laden +

Compound +fence +security +rumor
messages +Pakistan +(Courier OR messenger)
Videotape +al Jazeera +(courier OR messenger)

Would these have led right to OBL? Maybe not, but at least you’re slicing the available index of material much more granularly and intelligently.

Intelligence is about pulling tenous threads and connecting sometimes-nearly-invisible dots. Results to a query like this might surface a datum, or even just trigger a thought in a talented analyst’s mind, that could lead somewhere useful.

3. Randomly “split” your queries: Here’s a neat trick. Even if you don’t have additional terms like the cases above, you can do something I call splitting your queries. Stick in random words like “Bin Laden + Thursday” or “Bin Laden + Baseball”.

Bin Laden + Baseball? Seriously?

Twenty eight million results.

Seriously.

Will this get you the 28 million results? Nope. Will it get you a different 658 than “Bin Laden + Thursday”? Yep.  And that’s how you can carve out a different slice of what Google has but normally wouldn’t show you.

Try months, days of the week and colors.

If you find it useful to keep going, stick in sports and the last twenty US Presidents.

You’d be surprised how different the results are.

Throw in some of the available Google restriction parameters (date, blogs vs. normal Web pages, file type) and you can suck ever bigger slices of what they have on ever more granular axes.

That’s probably more than anyone would want on the subject, but like I said, these are just three of about nine important limitations and attributes of traditional search engines that you should be aware of when using them for Intelligence or Law Enforcement.

I’ll try to post more later on the other six.

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this blog are mine alone, and do not represent the views, policies or positions of Cyveillance, Inc. or its parent, QinetiQ-North America.  I speak here only for myself and no postings made on this blog should be interpreted as communications by, for or on behalf of, Cyveillance (though I may occasionally plug the extremely cool work we do and the fascinating, if occasionally frightening, research we openly publish.)

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